Selim Raihan, Sayema Haque Bidisha and Zubayer Hossen
The economy of Bangladesh has steadily grown over the last two decades. However, utilizing the potentials of youth population remains a big challenge. The country, being at the middle of the period of demographic transition, is yet to reap the benefits of its demographic profile. Labour Force Survey 2016/17 reveals that, although as high as 31.6% of the total labour force are youth, aged between 15 to 29 years, youth unemployment rate of 10.6% is much higher than the national average of 4.2% with female unemployment rate much higher than that of males. There is a high degree of unemployment among the educated youth too, as 13.4% of unemployed youths have tertiary education and another 22.3% have higher secondary education. Furthermore, the rate for youth not in education, employment or training (NEET) is found to be 29.8%, with this rate for the female youths is as high as 49.4%.
The dominance of informal sector employment and lack of decent work are some of the notable predicaments of youth employment scenario, where the youth females’ are lagging behind their male counterparts. Though there are several youth-focused policies e.g. National Youth Policy (2017), National Skill Development Policy (2011) and 7th Five Year Plan, most of these policies are argued to lack detailed work plan for implementation as well as any effective financing strategy.
The demographic dividend is not an induced phenomenon rather it is a structurally given time bound phase, which requires ‘quality’ human resources endowed in terms of education, health and skill. Prioritizing budgetary allocation in social sectors such as health, education and social safety net is essential to maximize the plausible benefits of demographic transition. Market solutions are inadequate in this regard and therefore, significant investment from the state is a pre-requisite. Looking at the allocation of the national budget of 2019-20, it can be inferred that, although many initiatives have been taken and/or emphasized in the budget, the budget lacks adequate unequivocally youth-targeted programmes. Furthermore, shortfall of budget allocation in relevant youth-centred ministries is another constraint for youth development. Besides, the rate of implementation of the annual development programmes of the key ministries has also been found quite low. While examining social sectors, such as education and health, budgetary allocation proved to be insufficient compared to the required amount to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). In FY 2019-20 national budget, the proposed allocations in proportion to GDP for social sectors such as, health, education and social safety net are 0.9%, 2.1% and 2.6% respectively, which are grossly inadequate. Studies have indicated that to achieve SDGs by 2030, Bangladesh has to increase the public expenditure on health, education and social safety net in proportion to GDP by 3 to 4 folds from their current levels.
Given the gap in policy efforts to prioritize public spending for human capital development with youths being in the forefront, the country must prioritize youth development in its national plans and policies as well as in resource allocation to reap the benefits of demographic dividend in coming years. To prioritize resource allocation for youth development, initiatives like ‘youth budget’ can be an important policy instrument.
The budgetary allocation should focus on specific projects and strategies dealing with the mismatch of skill prevalent in the labour market of Bangladesh. The information asymmetry regarding the prospect of different skills needs to be alleviated by steps such as collaboration between TVET and standard schooling, short courses on TVET in the standard system, and overall strengthening of collaboration between vocational institutes and industry. It is high time to re-evaluate the indicators of the success of the education sector and critically examine the process of absorbing the drop-outs into the labour market. Education and training, while coupled with research can prepare the nation for the fourth industrial revolution.
Demographic dividend cannot be maximized without addressing the gender gap. Investing in SRHR (Sexual and Reproductive Health Rights), nurturing the care industry and incentivizing establishment of daycare centres at the workplace, the extension of maternity and post-maternity leave, introduction flexible and part-time working hour for the private sector can close the gender gap to a great extent. Increasing representation of females at the tertiary level of education and translating that representation into the labour market participation requires a holistic approach like preventing child marriage and early pregnancy.
Although Bangladesh is going through a demographic transition, converting its youth population to dividend necessitates timely and effective steps from the government. Such policies require targeting both demand and supply-side bottlenecks, which should include policies related to greater allocation in social sectors, effective coordination of industry and educational curriculum to resolve the mismatch in skill, and gender-specific policies to bring a greater proportion of women in the mainstream labour market etc. Though the demographic transition is a natural phenomenon, translating this into an accelerated economic growth to turn it into dividend will require a rigorous implementation of well-thought-out policies. Conclusively, the importance of good governance to utilize the demographic dividend cannot be overemphasized.
Selim Raihan 